Replies to post #8530 on QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #9 (Northam43-WAVES)

All in bold is what has changed from last report.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 3rd Trading Day: Current price is 18.82 change of -.16. Today's high was 18.93 change of -.45. The lower trend line price is 19.41 change of -.16. 3rd low of this cycle is at 18.61 change of -.29. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.48. The current upper trend line price is 19.91 change of -.19. Current price is below the lower trend line. The average QID Daily Phase I cycle is 7 trading days.

QID Weekly Phase I, 3rd Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.48 change of -.05. The current cycle low is at 18.61 change of -.29. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted three weeks was August 11, 2008. The current upper trend line price is 20.71 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 12th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 24.18 change of -.04. The upper trend line price is 29.66 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 5 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 5 QID positions at 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 12th Trading Day: Current price is 58.53 change of +.41. Cycle high is at 59.19 change of +.90. Todays high was 59.19 change of +.90. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The last time QLD Daily Phase II had more than 12 trading days was January 11, 2010. The upper trend line price is 56.92 change of +.45. Current price is above the upper trend line.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 3rd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 59.19 change of +.90. The upper trend line price is 57.47 change of +.15. The lower trend line price is 54.10 a change of .00. The last time Phase II lasted 3 weeks, was November 2007 & June 2008. The price is currently above the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 9th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 13 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 7 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 54.83 change of +.15. QLD price will have to fall below 54.83 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend (at this point it would have to be two months).

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: QID Daily cycle is still below it's average, whereas the QLD Daily is above it's norm. Right now it's pretty much the Weekly cycles that is driving the train. QID weekly could last 11 more weeks, the QLD weekly could last 8 more weeks. When the weekly cycles complete, the Monthly cycles may then be close to a major bottom/top. Right now the game plan is to hold QLD if QLD hits or goes below the QLD Daily EMA 3 (57.84)I will sell the 57.07 position. If QID makes a new low tomorrow I will probably add a new position.