Zeev,
The distribution count, although mostly minor, is piling up here (major distribution in []):
NASDAQ: 6 ( 11/10, 11/16, [11/19], 11/23, 11/29, 11/30 )
S&P 500: 5 ( 11/10, [11/19], 11/23, 11/29, 11/30 )
DJIA: 5 ( 11/10, [11/19], 11/23, 11/29, 11/30 )
Technically, any major distribution day (>1% drop in rising volume) before 12/9 would mark a breakdown day on any of the 3 major indices.
The last time we had 16 distribution days on the books without a breakdown (it typically doesn't go this low until AFTER a breakdown) was 7/28/2003. During that period, we finally got a breakdown (it was false alarm) on 8/5/2003. Then, the false alarm corrected itself with a NASDAQ follow-through on 8/18/2003.
Do we get the same "false alarm" breakdown here, minor swoon, then blast off?...
-David