CHLN - the long term perspective also is quite promising. As an oldie but goodie, here is a look from a bird's eye perspective, posted on the Yahoo board back on 03 Feb. 2010 by 'tim_zanni'. The valuation of the spare land holdings at Baqiao is possibly somewhat optimistic but the profit potential from developing that land bank is not included at all:
"this [CHLN] is not a stock you want to trade...its a long term hold
trade other stocks and ETFs and dump your profits into CHLN
$3 $4 $5 a share makes no difference
$15+ by 2014
CHLN market cap around $125 million
They purchased 487 acres in Baqiao high tech area in 2008
Sold 18.4 acres for $24.4 million
79 acres where contributed for the Puhua project - JV partner gave 30 million for 25% share.
$1.33 million per acre on first deal
$1.14 million per acre on the second deal
market value of the remaining 390 acres is $450-$475 million or 3.5 x current market cap,..this is just one piece of land they own...,,only $145 million in liabilities....no major competition in Xian area.
Sustainable Structural Long-Term Growth — China’s real estate sector is in the early stage of its growth cycle, supported by rapid GDP growth, rising housing demand, and robust structural changes similar to those of Japan in the early 1970s and of Hong Kong of early 1980s. Hong Kong’s property market increased in value by 8 times between 1980-1997, or a compound annual growth rate of about 15 percent, while Japan’s property boom ran for more than 20 years from early 1970s to the early 1990s. There are many fundamental similarities among the growth paths of these economies.
China’s property bull market begun over seven years ago and expect the structural upward trend that supports growing demand for China’s real estate to continue for the next 10 years. The two key industry drivers for growth in China are the dramatic migration of people from rural to urban areas and the rising per capita disposable income in the cities.
China is in the midst of a rapid urbanization process. In 2006, there were more than 577 million Chinese living in urban areas, and they accounted for about 44 percent of total population of about 1.31 billion. The State Council of China estimated in 2007 that China’s urban population in 2020 would comprise about 870 million people or about 60 percent of the total population of 1.45 billion."
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