Replies to post #90792 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Combining HCV nukes (VRUS IDIX)

With respect to the reference that Roche wants to test RG7128 with other non-PIs, what do you think of my speculation in #msg-46762882 that VRUS' PSI-7977 or IDIX's IDX184, both nukes, could be prime candidates for a Roche partnership?

In general, one gets more antiviral bang for the buck by combining a pyrimidine nuke and a purine nuke than by combining two pyrimidines or two purines. Since RG7128 (cytidine) and PSI-7977 (uridine) are both pyrimidine nukes, RG7128 + PSI-7977 is probably not an ideal combination.

It would be more logical for Roche to combine RG7128 with either IDX184 or PSI-938/PSI-879, all of which are purine (guanosine) nukes. Among these purine nukes, IDX184 is of course the furthest advanced.

[DewDiligence]

Is Roche’s ‘INFORM-3’ HCV study dead after all? I think so—in VRUS’ quarterly press release issued yesterday (#msg-57047768), there is no mention whatsoever of INFORM-3 in the section of the PR on Calendar Year 2011 Anticipated Milestones.

INFORM-3 was originally supposed to start in 2010, but it got bumped to 2011 last summer for no particular reason. Now, the trial is evidently not slated for a 2011 start, which more than likely means it isn’t going to start ever.

This is hardly a surprise—mcbio and I have been predicting the demise of the INFORM program on this board for some time (e.g. #msg-46797334, #msg-52702788). Inasmuch as ITMN-191 (a/k/a Danoprevir, RG7227) is a fatally flawed drug, it makes little sense for Roche to test it in combination with VRUS’ RG7128 or with any other HCV drug Roche may have at its disposal.