Replies to post #5190 on Biotech Values

[rkrw]

I added a little more today as well.

If ISEL hits and the perception is its tarceva's equal, I think OSIP could go a fair bit lower. Maybe I'm being overly conservative but I think 30-35.

As I said before, I hedged in cheap and have some calls as a kicker in case ISEL shows (and azn discloses!! big if) tarceva to be unambiguously better.

I'm guessing isel primary survival endpt is about a 25% increase (vs BR21 actual 42%). So what if they meet the endpt, but don't disclose actual numbers? Then you get into the perception not reality reaction based on selective data disclosure. This is my main concern.