Replies to post #8462 on QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[TREND1]

Report Subject: QID/QLD Cycle Updates

And place it in sticky, so I can find it every day ???

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #1 (Northam43-WAVES)

This is my first complete cycle update report. I'm not totally sure on how I want the report formated. So it may take a few reports to come up with the final product.

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 4th Trading Day: Hit the 4th low of this cycle at 19.42. I added to my QID position at 19.47. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.51. The current upper trend line price is 20.73. Each day the upper trend line price will fall until the trend has changed.

QID Weekly Phase I, 1st Trading Week: Price went below the lower trend line at 19.74. The current cycle low is 19.42. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 15 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted only one week was December 24, 2007. The current upper trend price is 21.10.

QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is currently trading below the lower trend line price of 25.31. The current upper trend line price is 31.72. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest lasted 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 6 QID positions at 19.47, 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 4th Trading Day: The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The current upper trend line price is 55.06. So the price would currently have to fall below that area to end the current Phase II cycle. If I have two or less QLD positions I may hold them longer depending on the status of the weekly and monthly QLD cycles.

QLD Weekly Phase I, 4th Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase I lasts 7 weeks. The QLD Weekly high today is 56.90. The upper trend line price is currently 57.08. So QLD Weekly is very close to Phase II.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a long term trend change. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.91. So QLD price would have to fall below that level and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: I believe I am getting better at this. Of course time will tell and my results will speak for itself. Staying with my system is the key. When I trade on emotion or noise from others it usually does not work out very well. This report took longer than I expected. However future reports will be just updating what has changed so they shouldn't take as long. Your feedback is always welcome. All historical documentation (cycle data sheets, cycle charts, transaction records) will be maintained on my website.

P.S. Anyone caught selling this system will be tracked down and prosecuted. Northam43-WAVES is FREE and it will remain FREE. As FREE as the wind blows. One exception, POKERSAM has to pay to use it.