... Gee, no one mentions my reason. If I wasn't sure that I'm right, and that my reason is best, it would be enough to make me doubt myself. ===============================================================
Well, I think your reasoning was valid and if it's not too much trouble, may I suggest you copy your original post to IAC at SI in response to the link below. I, for one, would like to see the response it gets over there.
Also in your scenario, I expect local governments to find ways, up to and including nationalization, to take more of the spoils rather than letting the miners reap all the benefits. I expect this to be especially true in less stable countries.