We had something of a sentiment-driven, blow-off top in the HUI (and juniors) a year ago. It was all out of proportion to the actual increase in the POG. If you smoothe that out of the charts, things look better.
I understand your deciding to lighten up on gold in anticipation of a rise in the $US. Sure, it'll happen eventually, maybe even starting on Monday. My problem is that I can't time these things, so I ask myself, "will the POG hit $1500 in the next ten years?". Since I think it will, I stay invested, and try not to get too upset or excited about the bumps.