Replies to post #21179 on The Black Box

[dieselfuel]

2400 is most likely a "stretch" for this year.

But I'm going to assume we close around 2200 for the year.

I',m looking for 3142 at the close of 2005. That's 30% above 2200. I won't be a bit suprised if we do a lot better than that.

I'm looking at a low for the $compx of 8676 and a high of 18,960 by March of 2010.

The low would be 24% compounded, and the high would be 35% compounded year over year.

It may seem crazy, but those are very "doable" numbers.

[dieselfuel]

I know no one gets in at the bottom and out at the top (constistantly, anyhow).

But just to make a point:

If one bought the QQQ's at the August '04 low, they'd be up 17%.

If they had bought the Oct '02 low, they'd be up 50% (not compounded). THAT'S WITH A SHI**Y 2004 (until recently)!

The 2000 "crash" was a "shake-out".

Now there's going to be a battle in the large-caps for leadership.

Companies like Google and Yahoo will be battling it out.

I'm betting on broadband, networking, and internet.

I'll probably pass on bio-tech. They may be the ones to lead a new bull market in the 2020's.


JMO, fwiw.