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brightness

08/19/02 12:21 PM

#16877 RE: mlsoft #16875

IMHO, all the talks of eminent market drop is wishful thinking. Zeev got intimation from the CBOE P/C ratio, but the fly in the ointment is that the September QQQ Max Pain point has been moving up in the last 24 hours not down. So much of the call volume may well be closing trades.

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Lane Hall-Witt

08/19/02 12:40 PM

#16883 RE: mlsoft #16875

mlsoft--

Nice summary of clues to help discern the exertions of the PPT.

As for U.S. market behavior and the European crisis: the ramp in the dollar and U.S. equities would help Europeans as they sell U.S. assets to generate liquidity; strength in the U.S. markets would help shore up European balance sheets, since European financial institutions have heavy direct exposure to U.S. assets; the European and U.S. markets are trending synergistically (Europe pumps the U.S. pumps Europe), which would be helpful for the PPT to encourage in the face of balance-sheet stress. <???>

You and Zeev are right: there's no use fighting it. Play it their way if you can get a sense of the motivations and the extent of the intervention; otherwise, stand aside. I'm sidelined because they're working much harder than I would've expected under any "normal" scenario. Putting in a floor is one thing, but actively lifting a no-volume market is quite another. Someone out there, whether American or European, looks to be in trouble.

I'm surprised that Asia has remained so weak, even with the charge higher in the West.

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Alex G

08/19/02 2:12 PM

#16961 RE: mlsoft #16875

mlsoft... re: PPT, I'm certainly aware of the powers of the PPT, but there are definitely more "powers" around other than them... And once the buying momentum starts and gets some legs going then the fact is: rising prices causes more buying. There's also many market-timer newsletter writers who have all gone on buy signals, and I'm referring to the top ten market timers.

perhaps a quote is due here...

"When you have got an elephant by the hind legs and he is trying to run away, it's best to let him run." -- Abraham Lincoln

That said, I have shorted DELL and TYC here, counting on Naz 1400 and SPX 950 to mark a local top.