kevinb: I trade based on what I believe are high percentage plays. What that means for me, is my technical expectation is right more often than wrong, but that also requires that I plan for the times my expectations are wrong as well.
I posted Friday that I expected the market as measured by the NYA and COMPX would begin a pullback if not into the close Friday, by Monday AM.
On occasion rising wedge patterns and rising trading channels are negated and this “can” be a very bullish sign under certain conditions or it “can” be a sign of a last gasp rally lure to pull individual investors in near the top of a move. It is rarely easy to see which is occurring by simply watching the price action.
So, I rely on my intra day OB/OS models to assist. While this move up today has been tradable, my best guess is that to many folks were anticipating and positioned for a pullback, so them that hold the price stamp are shaking the tree. If enough folks have fallen out, we'll get that pullback. Of course, the retrace levels need to be recalculated from the slightly higher highs today over Friday's highs. There is always the possibility that the previous resistance lines will become support, not just offer it. So, if (and I expect it will) the pullback does materialize, if it is to extend it will be necessary for the price action to drop back through the previous resistance lines and back inside the violated formations.
We shall see, those scoundrels can be tricky and harder to read at times...gg
Regards,
LG
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
