Stella, Cap and trade? It's all about yield. Low growth, low interest rate environment... a company's stock should yield more than it's less risky debt, as Bill Gross says. EXC yields 4.8%, and Bill Gross is buying utilities, so you're in good company, but technically...EXC looks like it has considerably more room to go to the downside, especially if rates rise... which looks likely. P.S. Interesting take on the machinations of the financial world.
They have been selling the shit out of this stock for a while and it is almost back to where it was at the 09 bottom. Looks like the bottom was in the 39-40 range and you are back in the 43 area now.
The stock was up 30% into July and then has traded sideways to lower since then when it hit 54 and change. Most other stocks and many utilities continued to move nicely higher into Dec./Jan. and yet this one could only manage a small bull trap which was just a reaction. The fact it didn't move up with the market or others in its industry is a sign they were dumping the stock slowly at higher levels.
It should take some time to base before it moves up again with any real conviction. It would take a game changing attitude adjustment by big money to get behind it and push up the price. Right now big MO is buying on the huge volume and will wait out any further correction. The MO's that are buying are glad the stock has been falling as they feel they are getting in at a bargain. They have the pockets for it, do you?
The recent selling in the 46 to 43 area was approx. 2 times normal volume and the range of the each day's individual move was relatively modest given the heavy volume. MO was trying to find a bottom in there and was buying heavily or the stock would have tanked further on that kind of volume.
The breakdown at 45 in Feb. had a shorter candle than the breakdown from 48-46.50 in Jan. They both were one day moves but the Feb. range was narrower indicating less selling pressure and move willingness to buy keeping the range narrower.
It will be interesting to see if it finds support near forty or continues down into the mid 30's which would be the next long term support area.
Personally I would not buy the stock yet. My pereference is to let the stock begin a basing pattern which tells me the selling is over and buyers are slowly coming back in. With all the selling that has been done there is a lot of overhead supply or resistance to work through before a significant move would probably begin.
Don't try to pick bottoms or tops. All the profit a stock makes is in the middle after the move begins and before it shows signs of exhaustion.
Learn to read charts and you will have a better chance at finding stocks that are currently poised to move. Trust me I have missed many a move as I was preoccupied watching other stocks and wasn't paying attention. If you watch enough charts you often can feel when the move is getting ready to begin. You will intuitively begin to understand the nuances of certain stocks. Find stocks that appeal to this inate understanding and you will be successful in your efforts.
Please keep in mind that when I enter positions in stocks as I posted here for you earlier I am often not in them for long. It depends on how the move is setting up. If I get some wind under my sail I don't get too crazy and I am willing to weather counter moves but I don't usually stay in a position for long if it doesn't begin to move my way.
If you want some more on my philosophy on reading charts you may go to www.trendlinebreakoutstocks.com and read some of what I have posted there. I have not posted much in several weeks due to some programming changes we are trying to make but there are a number of articles on the website that may give you a sense of prespective about what I personally look for. Don't know if it will help you but feel free to look there and see for yourself. If you have questions regarding the site and its info. I am happy to respond.
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