That chart's eerie, to a degree, Augie, as I rank it a 30% chance that the Nasdy actually could stop at a 1398 high within 2 to 9 days, and that's all the rally we get, our high for the next three years.
I also rank 1590 as a 30% chance at the upper extreme, with a 40% chance it goes to some spot in the middle of those two.
Though the inverse chart may hold very close to true for awhile, most post-bubble declines tend to move faster in the first great fall and the final legs down. April 18, 03 is the earliest I can project a bottom; January 04 is the latest.
And 466 is my favorite target number, give or take 64 points. I'd give the latter range 80% odds of being right.
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