Replies to post #326758 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Alexander]

zeev

This is going to be interesting. I basically have an opposite view of yours, although I must admit that due to the macro-economic picture and Bush reelection (current account deficit and budget deficit) I have become less bullish for 2005.

As said before, there are two opposite forces at work IMO: one is the disruption of the business models of large CAP tech stocks, while I see increased momentum among the emerging companies that are causing this disruption. Tough to forecast which one will prevail.

In short, I'm less bearish than you as I have too much "faith" in technological innovation and its impact on productivity, hence indirectly on the economy.

Alexander

[kevinb]

How about this for a possible triggering event.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=16893

Bird flu most likely to become human flu pandemic, WHO expert says


Dr Klaus Stohr, an international expert, said the bird flu virus is the most probable cause of the next human flu pandemic. He believes it could affect one third of the world's population.

Dr. Stohr coordinates the World Health Organization's global influenza program. He was talking at a WHO conference of Asian health ministers in Bangkok, Thailand.

Dr Stohr says it is not a question of ‘whether' there will be another pandemic - it is a question of ‘when'. He said "There are estimates that would put the number of deaths in the range between two and seven million and the number of people affected will go beyond the billions as 25 to 30 per cent will fall ill. This virus is certainly the most likely one which will cause the next pandemic. We don't know if the next pandemic will happen in the next week or in the next years. We have to be ready now."

The earliest a vaccine against the H5N1 bird flu strain may become available will be during the spring of next year. There are two companies, both from the USA, which are developing a vaccine.

Stohr's concern is that the virus strikes hardest during the winter and early spring months, leaving millions of people in Asia vulnerable.

Stohr said the most likely place for the virus to spread would be the Asian countries that have been badly affected by outbreaks of bird (avian) flu - Thailand, Vietnam and possibly China.

The greatest worry is that the H5N1 Bird Flu virus strain may mutate and spread from human-to-human. If the virus managed to find its way into a pig (and affect it), it could then infect people with a vengeance.

[lemming]

Zeev,

I did not follow you and your turnips back in 1999. What did TICKs look like back then, pre & post the March meltdown?

-David