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Replies to #90516 on Biotech Values
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ghmm

02/12/10 12:32 AM

#90524 RE: mcbio #90516

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I still have a small position (not tiny like array :-) but pretty small now). I took a loss on it last year figuring its unlikely to see much good news in 2010. I am not as negative on it as genisi but they had too many negatives in the clinic for now. Certainly their "reacquiring" rights from Shire was a big negative in my book. Despite their claim to starting an EU trial late this year I see it as unlikely without a new partnership of somesort and also fool hearty since the bar is much higher and the trial longer/more expensive.

I think Amigal still has a good shot at showing efficacy in the Phase 3 but results are further out and the US market alone won't be enough near-term revenue for the company. I'll let genisi chime in on the data if she wants as she is much more qualified then me.

The program that excited me most was Pompe and especially ERT+Chaperone both of which are still a long way off now with the Pompe setback (and limited cash). The Gauche program stopping in and of itself wouldn't have bothered me because its the most competitive area but it spoke volumes about their technology not being quite ready.

Maybe they surprise me an get lucky with a big Alzheimer's or Parkinson's partnership this year but barring that their best two bets (Amigal and Chaperone+ERT) are unlikely to create much value this year. If they get desperate they'll have to sell Amigal for a song but Crowley's been in that boat before and pulled a rabbit out of a hat.