ajtj99: I think longer term you can't have a bullish bias until that monthly trendline is taken out on the COMP and NDX.
From a trend following perspective, I would agree. And, my system does follow trends, but I also work at determining in advance potential changes in trend for a variety of time intervals. You and I have communicated enough over the last year or two for you to know, that I like to trade the pivot points. You can't catch the pivot points waiting for a confirmation of a trend change. I use my system to gage when I think over sold or over bought conditions materialized and at what general price points and time frames we will see a trend reversal. As you know, I watch several time frames to gage intra day, short, medium and longer-term conditions.
From a conservative standpoint waiting for a major bearish trend line break to help confirm is wise. Waiting for a rise above the 200-day SMA would be an even more conservative approach and not a bad one in a long-term trending market, both valid depending on one’s investment time frame and risk tolerance. For instance, someone near retirement or retired should not be bottom picking with their retirement funds.
As I am a day trader albeit semi retired now, most of my posts tend to be in relationship to intra day to short-term market oscillations. I do try to identify medium to longer-term market turns, however if I get on board expecting at least a short-term change in trend believing that the CIT could be confirmed as a medium to longer-term trend down the road, that works for me as well. I do keep an eye on the larger picture as I have non-trading accounts for our retirement and primary retail accounts. I only day trade with a set percentage of our retail capital and “never” day trade with retirement monies.
As I posted at the time, my work suggested that the 7/24 pivot lows for the NYA and COMPX were at least medium-term pivots. Time has proven that assessment correct. However, if the price patterns I posted yesterday break to the norm and the price action does retrace low enough to test the 7/24 lows, it is possible that we could see some slightly lower price lows in some of the major Indices, but my work suggest that 7/24 will stand as a momentum low.
What that means is, I am not expecting a next leg down with this consolidating pullback.
Regards,
LG
Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on any one person's views or analysis, especially an anonymous message board poster such as myself. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions. And, always use stop loss points.
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