Limtex, maybe a trip through memory lane will refresh, you keep being depressed when the market is down, just as it is going up, and optimistic just after the market had a major advance and is ready to go down, all because you insist business conditions and market direction are congruent, the market tries to discount future events, not back view mirror:
#reply-16844580 of yours which was in answer to my 12/30 (#reply-16843930) warning that LTBH is still dangerous. (we are within 10 days of the January peak at 2096, you are hopeful)
#reply-17101848, 2/22, you are depressed as we print the local low here at 1696, just before we march 250 Naz points to 3/11 at 1946.
#reply-17149613, 3/4 I accept the bet you lay (#reply-17149613), that we will see 3000 before we see 1700. I hope you sent that donation to MVHA (g). 3/4 is exactly a week before we peak at 1946. Then, on March 8th, as we approach that top of 3/11 you raise the bet to 4000 on the naz for 2003 with 3000 being a given for 2002: #reply-17172472.
And then, while I was prepping the thread for the coming Nassacre on May 14th (#reply-17468131), just a day from the top at 1759, you once again turned bullish bringing the growing economy into play #17468289.
Maybe I should repeat this post here #reply-1747134, but more importantly, a quote from #reply-17700090: "Get this into your mind, the economy has less to do with stock prices than valuations, market psychology and liquidity. "
I hope this little exercise in history will cure you of expecting the market to react according to the cotemporal economic news.
<I only believe in business. If business is good then the market will react to that and so will investors. If business is bad or as it is now increasingly looking even worse then who would want to own stocks. There is no point.> i can only say PLEASE study Warren Buffet on this issue. Warren Buffet's investing style is built on your premise being wrong, and Warren has done fairly well in his 50years of investing And here is a factoid, ONLY one othertime in history did the market have a sustained period of supporting a P/E trailing of 22-1 and that was in the 20s. Our present trailing P/E is 33-1. Now Limtex read this, if you do not read this i will never respond to you again.(VBG:) It is vital material. http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=205324 Buffet speaks out on matters he rarely shares. Also your demand for capitulation precision will be met when the P/E trailing drops to bear market evaluations(but that could be between 15-1 to as low as 6-1:) If you are looking for an exact formula that tells you the exact moment of final capitulation give up, as it does not exist. We have explained before this CRASH is in slow motion, people keep waiting for a crash and they couldn't catch on THIS PROCESS is the crash. We will have intermediate term capitulations until this is over. In 1929 the market was down OVER 80% AFTER the crash.And it took 35months to get there. When one enters now is extremely dependent on one's age, this is a major variable. Bear market evaluations occur because the economy is improving but people still are not buying. Max
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