Ukraine exit poll shows liberal winner Sun 21 November, 2004 19:20
By Ron Popeski
KIEV (Reuters) - Ukrainians have voted for a new president and an exit poll issued after polls closed said a West-leaning liberal had beaten the ex-Soviet state's Russian-backed prime minister.
The run-off vote was the culmination of a bruising campaign. Many fear the aftermath of the election could produce turmoil if the result proves close and contested.
The exit poll, conducted by Ukrainian research organisations, gave opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko 54 percent of the vote against 42 percent for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, the establishment candidate.
Yushchenko, an economist who favours gradual integration with the West, had topped the first round in October by less than one percentage point.
He had warned that officials would cheat to boost the chances of Yanukovich, backed by both the Ukrainian establishment and Russia. But he predicted he would win anyway.
Neither candidate offered immediate comment on the poll. Outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, who endorsed his prime minister, said ahead of the vote that neither exit polls nor alternative counts by the opposition were to be trusted.
The exit poll was conducted by the Kiev International Institute for Sociology and the Razumkov Centre, which said they had tried to increase accuracy by not requiring those polled to give their names in public.
Two Ukrainian exit polls after the first round had varying degrees of accuracy. Pollsters acknowledged that their effectiveness was reduced by fear among those being questioned.
Yanukovich said after voting on Sunday that he counted on the good sense of 37 million voters.
"I believe that the reason and level-headed thinking of Ukrainians will prevail," he said.
THREATS OF UNREST
As the campaign closed, Yushchenko had threatened to call supporters into the street if denied victory by mass fraud.
"The scenario by the authorities of winning by cheating is Utopian. It won't work," Yushchenko, accompanied by his wife and five children, said after voting in central Kiev.
"We now have a different voter, a different country. Of course there will be fraud, but not enough to affect the outcome."
The election could determine the direction of Ukraine, a potential industrial and agricultural powerhouse lying between Russia and three European Union members to the west.
There was no indication how long the official count would take. Ten days were needed in the first round.
Opposition activists erected a stage and screen in Kiev's vast Independence Square and vowed to proceed with a parallel vote count based on their own data. They also pitched tents -- a tactic by Ukraine's opposition dating from Soviet times.
Western observers called for measures to resolve first-round problems, such as lists which omitted large numbers of voters. Media outlets noted many irregularities, especially multiple voting by groups holding special absentee ballots.
Officials said a polling station was closed south of Kiev after a policeman guarding ballots was killed. A report from western Ukraine said four ballot boxes had been set on fire.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's backing for Yanukovich shows Moscow's desire to keep influence in its former empire after last year's election of a pro-Western leader in Georgia.
Average monthly wages stand at about $60 (32 pounds), much lower than in Russia and the premier has tried shore up his popularity by controlling prices of staples and increasing pensions and public sector wages.
Critics say that will fuel inflation and accuse him of selling off industry cheaply to interests close to authorities.
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