Replies to post #89974 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ACHN:

Differentiating characteristics of ACH-2684 versus ACH-1625 and more advanced PIs in the clinic appear to be potency, activity against all genotypes, and activity against genotype mutants and quasi-species variants of HCV.

In other words, ACH-2684 is simply a protease inhibitor with several desirable characteristics; it was silly, IMO, for ACHN management to promote this drug candidate as having a novel MoA when it clearly doesn’t. Many of the arguments ACHN is making in favor of ACH-2684 apply to other new PI’s such as IDIX’s IDX320 (#msg-45598790).

It’s not a huge factor in the overall scheme of things, but the way ACHN management promoted ACH-2684 makes me somewhat less inclined to believe what they say on other matters—e.g. partnership discussions.

[DewDiligence]

ACHN:

The first trials for elvucitabine will be focused on HBV. HBV market in China is north of 100 million infected patients. Hepsera and Baraclude have not fared well in China but elvucitabine has an extended half-life of over 100 hours, which ACHN believes will give it a significant dosing advantage over the competition.

There’s more than a modicum of propaganda here. The reason Hepsera has not sold well in China is because there are about a dozen knockoff drugs on the market. I.e. China does not uphold GILD/GSK’s IP sufficiently to prevent an array of pseudo generics from stealing Hepsera’s business.

Elvucitabine will (IMO) never amount to anything of consequence commercially—in China or elsewhere.

[mcbio]

ACHN @ Bio (2/9/10)

http://ir.achillion.com/events.cfm

1. ACHN has apparently been given clearance by the FDA to proceed into the clinic with ACH-1095, the NS4A antagonist. The Phase 1 trials will be done in similar fashion to how they have developed ACH-1625 to date.

2. HCV market - Only 1/3 of current patients diagnosed and, of these, only 5% are treated. Therefore, only 1.6% of the HCV-afflicted population is treated.

3. "High likelihood" that ACH-1625 will be partnered "this year."

4. ACHN will likely partner ACH-2684 (lead compound in the newly-disclosed HCV program) apart from ACH-1625 and not as a package deal. Package deal will only be done if a prospective partner offers a "substantial premium."

5. FWIW, and it may not necessarily mean anything, for its 2010 milestones, ACHN lists an ACH-1625 partnership ahead of the initiation of the Phase 2 trial for ACH-1625.

6. ACH-702 - rapidly advancing partnership discussions for this compound and ACHN expects it may have a deal by 3Q/4Q10. A partnership for this compound could bring "significant up-front cash" for ACHN.