Replies to post #89724 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: IDIX/VRUS

VRUS's top two compounds are much deeper into PII than IDIX.

VRUS' RG7128 is much deeper into Phase 2 than any of IDIX's HCV compounds, but that's it. PSI-7977 (their 2nd gen nuke) just entered Phase 2 this month whereas IDX184 actually entered Phase 2 back in November 2009.

VRUS took off after EASL data in '09 ... from $8 to $24... so the approximate 3x difference in market cap between IDIX and VRUX can be almost entirely this (partnered) compound.

Yes, and this is what I don't get. RG7128 is a first gen nuke that is a little further along in development, but it IMO has a legitimate chance to be superceded by VRUS' own internal 2nd gen nukes such as PSI-7977, let alone those of competitors such as IDX184. Why should VRUS be afforded such a large valuation premium for a 1st gen compound when there are 2nd gen compounds quickly coming along? Perhaps those 2nd gen compounds will all fail, but it doesn't seem like a reasonable bet IMO.