This Seeking Alpha person is rear view mirror driving IMO.
That leveraged balance sheet was a hangup initially looking at it for me too but still thought it a decent value play with growth element so was biting a bit.
But the cashflow/debt repayment forecasted in the presentation really sparked my interest I think on Jan 11 or Jan 12. That was when I got more aggressive buying (I think it became #2 position then and I've been adding since up to '$5.6399' LOL), especially since those comments were made after the Q had already finished.
Anything can happen of course, but IMO this is going to not have a hard time going up this year regardless of market conditions if their cashflows are close to what they look like they could be unless the CEO is hanging people out to dry.
Considering the history of the company, the amount he makes, and the fact his comments happened AFTER the Q finished I would expect they at least come ballpark close to what he said.
In fact that weak balance sheet is probably what gave us an opportunity to get in some. It probably held back a chunk of people from getting in.
Not only that, I think it will be a DRIVER to support a higher share price going forward this year once people realize the cash geenration so will act in reverse from the way it has been affecting investors recently if it works out that way.
Earnings are great to see, but with the balance sheet these guys have andm arket position if they can clean it up and turn it around as they pretty much stated I think this has close to a 100% or more move in there from $5 even with OK earnings IMO.
With a little mo and because of the long downdraft they've had, it could be more than that eventually but it is all speculation for now until we get a Q report around Feb 9th.
There's a lot of downside safety built in too which also attracts me. Possible buyback, biz turning around, large market position, higher commodity prices, improved margins (if product pricing hasn't eroded recently), much less exposed to recessionary market/volatility (in fact a weak economy might even help a bit).
I initially got too ramped on what I thought they could do on revs near term probably but have paired that expectation back.
Even so, I think this company will make a lot of sense to some of the institutional holders out there trying to successfully invest in possible market volatility and prolonged recessionary conditions.
This company fits that need. And if the economy gets rolling strongly, that is fine too :-)
Good luck. Hopefully we have another 'safe' winner (my favorite kind). Although admittedly this company carries a large audience so I could be missing things re what I think it is/will be worth.
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