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DudeBug

01/11/10 11:38 AM

#135733 RE: Chiron #135724

At the Bankruptcy Court website, they state that a company files an initial reorganization proposal, usually two months prior to filing the final reorganization plan.

Right now, the filing dates are 1/19/2010 and 3/22/2010.

That information also states they can extend up to 20 months. I thought 18 months was the longest allowed to complete the reorganization but there may be exceptions.

Also .. interesting note that Judge Collyer deferred the FDIC actions to the BK Court and said to report back to her every 120 days. Since all legal proceedings will continue on in Judge Walrath's court even after a re-organization is completed, could it be that the possible effect of the settlement/lawsuits from the fraudulent conveyance (which is what got WAMU into BK) has to be accounted for in the reorganization?

Will be interesting to see exactly what WAMU plans to do with the Holding Company after it exits BK!!

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Sculelos

01/11/10 12:03 PM

#135749 RE: Chiron #135724

That makes sense, they probably already have something prepared since lawyers like to draw this stuff up just to be prepared.

I'm thinking if they can include either the NOLS or the Summary Judgment then creditors could be fully satisfied. With some left over there should be some money left over for equity. I guess that's why they are forming the comity to find out what they should do with the money after it's formed. It all depends also on how much money there is.

3.2 Billion in current cash'
4 Billion in Summary Judgment
3.1-5.2 Billion in tax refunds

10.3-12.5 Billion In Total Cash From the Above.

8.2 Billion in debt

That leaves 2.1-4.3 Billion dollars left over, since Washington Mutual is not liquidating but rather reforming it's anybody's guess to what could happen with it. I think it is possible under bankruptcy laws that the Preferred shares and common shares could all be canceled and they could issue new shares to replace them.

16.5 Billion / 4.3 Billion = 26%.

In my preposed settlement issue.

All Commons + Preferreds CANCELLED + Reissued New shares

New Market cap 4.3 Billion

For simplicity 1 Billion shares worth 4.30$ each are issued.

P holders get 60.46 Shares per current share rounded down.
K holders get 1.51 Shares per current share rounded down.
Common holders would get .46 Shares per current share rounded down.

181 Million Shares taken by P's
30 Million Shares taken by K's
789 Million Shares taken by Commons

It's worth noting that this would NOT be a final payment and thus would only reflect the value of the company when reformed. I'm sure they would still go after the FDIC for their 13 Billion and if they got it, it would add 13$ to the value of every share.

So potentially you guys could be seeing 17.30$ in the ratios I said.

So lowball Numbers first then Higher numbers second.

Possible Initial Payout:
Common = 1.98$/share
P = 260$/Share
K = 6.50$/Share


Possible Final Payout:
Common: 7.96$
P: 1045.96$
K: 26.12$

Anyone else think these numbers are possible and this scenario is possible? I think it's more then plausible and the final scenario would take care of the preferred holders and the common holders nicely.

P.S. Also like to mention that the highball numbers definitely wouldn't be final and that if Washington Mutual operates profitably as a business afterwords they could grow in share-price considerably.