A Major relapse can occur anytime, this rally is not very healthy, the volume is weak, there is no expansion of highs, there is a divergence between the big stocks and the small stocks and many other "problems". All this can still heal itself, but right now, as I have mentioned before I have moved to a more conservative position of 38% cash, earlier in the week I was often at close to nil cash. The model still has the mid 1500 as a target, since we did not have deterioration in some important counter parameters and we are still getting very positive technical readings from the NYSE (which may pull the Naz up with it). I think that the model will flash better signals if in the next two days we retreat like today (but not under 1263) and then recover before breaching the brink. It just may not be explosive right here (we had some nice explosions and very nice profits to here, reaching 38% was done by mostly taking profits, very few losses).
Zeev
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