Replies to post #87579 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

We have to look for a VRTX presentation slide from the phase-1b trial that shows viral-load decline on the y-axis and time (0 to 14 days) on the x-axis. If we find it, all we have to do is eyeball the viral-load decline at 5 days for the cohort of interest, which is 750mg TID.

[mcbio]

Re: ACH-1625 vs. Telaprevir (data comparisons)

Just to put this in a separate post, ACH-1625 had a mean 3.94 log10 reduction in HCV RNA after 5 days of monotherapy in its Phase 1b. By contrast, telaprevir had a median reduction in HCV RNA of greater than 3 log10 at day 3 and a median reduction in HCV RNA of 4.4 log10 at day 14 of its Phase 1b.

Mean and median themselves can be quite different depending on the actual data so that likely further complicates a comparison. Those possible differences aside, would it be reasonable to expect ACH-1625 to go from 3.94 log10 at day 5 up to and possibly beyond 4.4 log10 at day 14 thereby surpassing the telaprevir potency data at day 14? That's a further .46 log10 reduction after nine more days. I'm sure that's impossible to say.