OT CGTK
Too much downside potential not to hedge imo. Failures can be ruthless. Consider it an insurance policy, costs you $, but you hope to never have to use it :-) I learned this the hard way on sepr a few years ago, could have hedged and very cheaply.
My post well summarized what I did hear and discuss. Potential concerns with the phase II that make it very difficult to assess the phase III outcome. Behind E2F cgtk is more like an early private co, so I think your downside est of $5 may be on the mark. $30 on the upside seems fair as well.
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