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Replies to #4432 on Biotech Values
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rkrw

10/29/04 11:55 PM

#4436 RE: Skeptic #4432

CGTK

Skeptic, you're not living up to your pseudonym :-)

DSMB reviews. Correct me if I'm wrong, but they were safety reviews and also checking the pbo arm to see if the event rate met assumptions. I think the E2F decoy is safe, the question is whether it does anything.

BMY validation. BMY did put a lot into it but they also backend loaded the majority. It needs to work and sell well for cgtk to reach most of the $. Plus certainly big rx deal doesn't mean e2f will succeed.

Agree trials seem very well designed and powered.

My issue centers on whether or not the phase II trials are valid (single center trial) and if not, investors and cgtk are flying blind. I think the final outcome is a tossup. Sincerely hope my reluctance is misplaced and e2f trials are HR's.