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AskMrOwl

12/08/09 9:55 AM

#25587 RE: Penny Stalker #25586

RE: PPS Reaction to news

Penny, an efficient market will basically price in the value of news somewhat instantaneously. Let's say a transaction is announced that in a month, a deal will go through that will add $1M in value to the firm. Let's say that the probability that the transaction will be completed is 100% certain. The PPS will increase in value to represent the $1M within minutes of the PR being released. Now lets say that the probability that the transaction will be completed is 90%. The value of the PPS will increase to incorporate 900k of the transaction value instantaneously and the remaining 100k in value will be realized over the course of the month or on the day that the transaction is actually implemented. Bear in mind that the confidence level is the "average" confidence level of all investors "voting" with their dollars. This is why sometimes you will see values differ somewhat from buyout bids. If company A agrees to buy company B for $25.00 a share in 6 months you will find that the PPS of company B will adjust to $24.95 or so instantaneously with the remaining .05 representing the average possibility that the deal will fall through.

Since you purchased your stock after the announcement that news was completely priced in. The movement of the stock since then has little to do with the O&G transaction but more to do with ongoing performance of the company and overall economic conditions.
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iagman

12/08/09 10:12 AM

#25588 RE: Penny Stalker #25586

This was my first venture into penny stocks
and it has been an eye opening experience. What I thought would be a risky but worthwhile investment has turned out to be more like a case of reoccurring hemorrhoids.
iagman