I’ve come to appreciate Monsanto’s almost single-minded focus on guidance. Albeit, I recognize your point that it sets MON up for a fall should they not meet their target (#msg-43483542).
Most companies I follow provide lots of wiggle room and plausible denial opportunities in their projections. Or, they focus on a story line that excites the imagination but does not have much relevance to near-term performance. Monsanto could do either. They have wonderful story lines with regard to drought resistance and nitrogen utilization. And, their vegetable program is potentially ground breaking in the sense that it may move away from “bug and weed control” and into quality issues such as taste, nutrients, and texture. Instead, Monsanto presentations tend to focus first on current opportunities in corn, soybeans, and Roundup. These are the near term profit drivers.
By-the-way Bregemann’s talk was an incremental update on the Investor Biennial event presentation and is adequately previewed in the PR you provided. One point that he raised in the Q&A that I had not previously appreciated was that selling SmartStax will be easy relative to future innovations such as drought resistance, etc. That is because SmartStax’ primary advantage is refuge reduction; a qualitative advantage that the farmer recognizes applies directly to his/her production. The seed quality and advantages regarding reduced herbicide and insecticide usage are well known and not qualitatively different . The foreseeble new traits such as drought resistance will likely be viewed skeptically, in the sense that farmers might not see how its advantage is relevant to their current operations.
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