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tigertrader

12/03/09 5:36 PM

#4622 RE: coldasice #4621

Baby Jack is amazing. Thanks for asking.

My situation with WFWL is definitely analogous to yours with CYRX. That is, I let the trade get away from me, to a certain degree. I am saying "to a certain degree", because #1, I decided to treat WFWL like a private equity" investment, and #2, I was able to assume an "activist" role in the company. I can't go into further detail, but WFWL is far,far from finished. But it does go to show you, when you deviate from a methodology that has been proven to work, it will come back to bite you in the butt.

Sure I've lost money on plenty of deals...I 've been doing this for 35 years. But you are missing the point of my post. I've made made money on more deals, than I lost on deals, and my winners, are considerably larger than my losers...on average 3x-5x greater. That's the point I'm trying to make. It's all about money management...cutting you losses, and letting your profits run.


And it's about making a lot of trades. In probability theory , there is a theorem, called the "law of large numbers" that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed. That's why I keep going to the well. The larger the sample, the higher the probability of positive results...as long as you stick to your proven methodology.