The incursion of a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine into Japanese territorial waters in mid-November has illuminated a mounting competition under the surface of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and their adjacent seas. The chief rivals for submarine supremacy in this region are China, which has given priority to submarines as it acquires a blue-water or deep-sea navy, and the United States, which is rebuilding submarine capabilities that had atrophied after the Cold War.
China and the United States are not alone. North Korea has a sizeable coastal submarine force and South Korea has begun to counter it. Japan has a modest but proficient fleet. Taiwan is pondering the procurement of eight boats that would triple the size of its force. The city-state of Singapore has three submarines and is acquiring a fourth. Australia has six modern submarines based on a Swedish design for surveillance in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
In South Asia, India has been acquiring a submarine fleet with Russian help. A specialist on South Asia, Donald Berlin of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, has written that India will also build six to 12 French-designed submarines and is working on a nuclear-powered boat that will go to sea in 2006.
Pakistan has launched two submarines and is constructing a third. Berlin says "Pakistan will likely want a submarine-based nuclear weapons delivery system" to deter India. Iran has several submarines. Even Israel, usually considered a Mediterranean nation, is believed to have sent submarines armed with cruise missiles through the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean to deter a potential nuclear attack by Iran.
In contrast, Russia, which once deployed 90 submarines into the Pacific, has laid up all but 20 boats because of that nation's financial distress. "They've held onto their more capable boats," said a U.S. official with access to intelligence reports, but their operations are constricted.
The Chinese submarine in Japanese waters was one of five Han class boats, the first of China's nuclear-powered submarines. After she left port at Ningbo, she was detected by Taiwan as she steamed east, then by the U.S. near Guam in the central Pacific, and finally by Japan after she turned north to steam near Okinawa.
After a Japanese protest, Chinese spokesmen expressed regrets and blamed the mistake on unexplained "technical difficulties," raising questions about Chinese seamanship; the Chinese have long had problems operating submarines.
China is acquiring submarines to "patrol the littorals, blockade the Taiwan Strait, and stalk (U.S.) aircraft carriers," say two researchers, Lyle Goldstein and Bill Murray, at the Naval War College in Rhode Island.
China, which has 50 submarines in two older classes, began expanding 10 years ago when it bought four Russian "Kilo" submarines, then ordered eight more in 2002 for delivery starting in 2005. The Chinese are producing the "Song" class of attack boats armed with cruise missiles. Training has been intensified throughout the fleet
It is in the Taiwan Strait that Chinese and U.S. submarines would most likely clash if China seeks to blockade or invade Taiwan, the island over which it claims sovereignty but whose people prefer to remain separate.
American submarines would go into action because Taiwan lacks sufficient anti-submarine weapons to break a blockade or stop an invasion. U.S. policy is to help defend Taiwan from an unprovoked assault by China.
In the United States, the commander of the Pacific Fleet, Adm. Walter Doran, has made the revival of submarine warfare his top priority and has set up a special staff to oversee that resurgence. The Navy has recently established an anti-submarine warfare center in San Diego to improve training and readiness.
The United States has moved two submarines from Hawaii to Guam and will add a third to base them closer to operating areas. Where 60 percent of U.S. submarines operated in the Atlantic during the Cold War and 40 percent in the Pacific, the Navy is planning to reverse that ratio.
Attack submarines whose mission after the Cold War was to launch cruise missiles at land and sea targets and to gather intelligence have been assigned anew the task of fighting other submarines since the best anti-submarine weapon is another submarine.
Six "surtass" ships (Surveillance Towed-Array Sensor System) that use powerful sonar to detect submarines in vast areas of deep water have now been assigned to the Pacific. Four ballistic missile submarines are being converted to carry 150 cruise missiles each and to infiltrate 100 commandos onto hostile beaches.
Concluded a U.S. official, "Once again, the value of stealth is being recognized."
Richard Halloran, a former New York Times correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, D.C., writes from Honolulu. - Ed.
China has launched the first submarine in a new class of nuclear subs designed to fire intercontinental ballistic missiles, US defence officials said.
The submarine is, at a minimum, months away from having missiles installed and going on a cruise, one official said.
Still, it is further evidence of China's intentions to expand both its nuclear weapons and submarine forces, officials say.
It was widely known that China was building the new class of nuclear-missile submarine, called the Type 094, but the launch is far ahead of what US intelligence expected, one official said.
The launch was first reported in The Washington Times.
The newspaper reported that US intelligence spotted the sub at a shipyard 400 kilometres from Beijing.
It would be China's first submarine capable of launching nuclear weapons that could reach the United States from the country's home waters, officials said.
The Chinese military has also been developing a new class of submarine-launched ballistic missile, called the JL-2, that is expected to have a range in excess of 7,400 kilometres.
The Type 094 submarine would carry these missiles, but it is not clear whether the missiles are ready for deployment.
Previously, China has had only one submarine capable of launching nuclear missiles, called the Type 092, or Xia, class.
In 2001, a Pentagon report said the Xia was not operational. Its missiles were of an older class that could fly only 965 kilometres.
Successful cruises by the Type 094 would give China a new strategic deterrent against the United States, no longer limited to land-based ICBMs and weapons carried on aircraft.
But US defence officials say China lags the United States in its ability to hide submarines from sophisticated sonars and other sensors.
China is also modernising its land-based nuclear missile force, replacing its estimated 20 ICBMs with more modern versions.
In a report on China's military issued last May, the Pentagon said China's cache of ICBMs could increase to 30 by next year and 60 by 2010.
Although considered unlikely in the near term, the most likely avenue for conflict between the United States and China is over Taiwan, which China regards as a rogue province.
Taiwan is seeking high-tech weaponry from the United States, including diesel submarines and anti-submarine aircraft.
The United States, France, Russia and the United Kingdom all have submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.
China requires missiles to attack targets at sea China Ends Su-27 License
A primary target of these anti-ship missiles would probably be our aircraft carriers.
The missiles would be used in conjunction with China's subs.
A Chinese appraisal of future naval warfare in 2001, translated by the Foreign Broadcasting International Service of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), concludes that "the prospect for using submarines is good, because of their covertness and power. Submarines are menaces existing anywhere, at any time." In the same report, another Chinese analyst affirmed that "submarines are the maritime weapons posing the greatest threat to an aircraft carrier formation. Submarines are also our navy's core force."
China considers the aircraft carrier to be a sitting duck and has made it a priority to amass the arsenal to sink our carriers. Given that Bush is setting up to invade a different country every seventy days I would assume the aircraft carrier is to play a major part in our future wars. #msg-3237792
The United States relies heavily on aircraft carriers. China does not use and is into taking out aircraft carriers, very divergent strategies.
According to China’s navy development plan in the early 21st century, the second layer of defence and sea-denial capabilities are designed to primarily to break a blockade of the first island chain by 2015 to 2020. The roles of the aircraft carrier in this strategy remains uncertain. In fact many within the PLA and PLA Navy suggest that the military importance of the aircraft carrier is much less than its political importance. They argued that other platforms such as nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) would be much more useful for the PLA Navy in the near future. Some are also concerned that without a sufficient air, sea, and underwater protections, the aircraft carrier is no more than a sitting duck in a modern sea warfare. As the focus of China’s military planning shifts to the Taiwan Strait, the acquisition of aircraft carriers seems to have lost whatever urgency it had. http://sinodefence.com/navy/surface/aircraftcarrier.asp
-Am
China requires missiles to attack targets at sea
China Ends Su-27 License
According to the report of the Russian news website mosnews.com on 2 November, China has suspended the production of Su-27SK fighter jets under their Russian license, Russia’s Vremya Novostej newspaper reported on Tuesday, Nov. 2. According to Chinese military officials, these planes no longer satisfy the requirements of the Chinese Air Force.
The license to produce 200 fighter jets was purchased by China in 1996. The conditions of the contract stipulated that the jets would be assembled at Chinese plants using Russian components. The value of the contract amounted to $2.5 billion. However, after assembling 95 jets out of the planned 200, the Chinese side addressed the Sukhoi Construction Bureau with a request to stop deliveries of the assembly kits. The request was made in May, and neither side disclosed the reasons for the contract being suspended.
Vremya Novostej quoted a source in the Russian delegation at Airshow China-2004 that opened on Monday, Nov. 1, as saying the Chinese side had requested the Su-27SK fighter jets be equipped with additional guided anti-ship missiles. However, this model of fighter jets was not designed to attack targets at sea.
China has been building Su-27SK under license since the late 1990s
Representatives of the Sukhoi construction bureau presented the new model of Su-27 fighter jet — Su-27SMK at the airshow. This plane could satisfy all the Chinese requirements, because it is equipped with guided “air-to-sea” missiles. However, it is unclear whether this new modification of Sukhoi jet will be delivered to China in the near future.
Reference: China's objectives regarding Taiwan include "capabilities to deter, delay, or disrupt third-party intervention in a cross-Strait military crisis." What China is saying is that should a conflict arise we will see one or more of our aircraft carriers and accompanying ships disappear. #msg-3214699
China and Iran have bought brand-new, top-of-the-line, Kilo-class diesel subs from Russia, and other nations also have been buying submarines. #msg-3333316
The ‘Onyx’ missile means that Russia or China can sink American aircraft carriers at will without ever having to escalate to nuclear warfare, which gives both countries a massive strategic advantage. #msg-3429768
The Chinese focus a great deal on aircraft carriers. It's a huge topic in China. There's even an Internet Website where people put up suggestions about good ways to attack American aircraft carriers. #msg-3471674
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