Replies to post #313787 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[osprey]

Increasing oil futures trading margins will only slow oil down if the spike is speculative. That is, the futures markets are driving the price of crude.

If it is a true supply demand problem it won't make much difference.

In a speculative bubble raising margins can be very effective though. The gold/silver bubble of the early 1980s was halted in its tracks when the futures authorities raised the margin requirements. It is too long ago for me to remember accurately but I dimly think I remember that they raised the margin requirement to 100%.

[otraque]

Many oil analysts as opposed to OPEC (which keeps trying say its speculators), keep saying this is not a speculation event; the best guy i heard this week via Bloomberg Europe TV was a Jon Randolph of World Rearch Center say that for supply/demand to just stabilize there will need be an oil field equivalent of Libya discovered EVERY year and an oil field equivalent to Saudi Arabia discovered every 5 years just to match demand growth.
I heard Oil people express view the BIG new oil field just simply is not out there---these guys have been scouring the entire planet and are getting pessimistic.

i do agree with those that we will never see 35 a barrel, again.
And to get to below 40 you are going to require a global recession, imo.