Bill Fleckenstein now as bearish as he was in march 2000:
Blathering Crowds Ignore Gathering Clouds
However, now all those theories are facts, and in rather large number: Earnings are deteriorating across a broad front (more about that in a moment), but stock prices remain expensive. Price pressures are rising. The dollar is breaking, with the potential for a nasty fall. Oil is certainly over $40. (Last time I checked, $55 is a bit north of that.) Government and consumer debt levels are enormous. Spreads are starting to widen. We've got an insurance problem that might be bigger than anyone thinks. The housing market appears to be creaking, which will portend problems in finance. The Fed is certainly not easing, though they might like to consider it, somewhere in the not-too-distant future.
And yet, in the face of all our problems, people are still speculating with wild abandon, as can be seen in the lopsided sentiment measures and levels of utter complacency in the VIX. Relative to the risks, such reckless behavior makes this moment in time more speculative than March 2000. Obviously, that interpretation is subjective, but I can state objectively that this is going to end in disaster.
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