Replies to post #9222 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sir Realist]

Certainly 9/11 influenced sentiment. It:

-- accelerated that interim bottom by 8-14 days over what I was projecting it to arrive at;

-- boosted the bomb detectors and defense stocks

-- hurt airlines and related businesses

-- boosted Net-based conferencing systems to replace lost air travel

-- made Americans feel vulnerable, thereby influencing spending and investing/saving decisions, through the Fourth of July.

However, I do believe the bubble alone woulda brought things to similar straits. Patterns woulda differed some, and timing. And certain sectors woulda been very different in the interim.

We may get more incidents that impact the mkt too, but with or without them, the mkt bubble would deflate, hitting dips at 9 mo cycles, till we've overcorrected. Sept- July then April is the next. After that, with most of the damage complete, a 3 month slide to the final bottom.

I don't believe, in the absence of 9-11, we woulda escaped the decline from the largest bubble in US history.