Replies to post #86228 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Future pricing of HCV interferons

So, ifn's double their price [to offset a shorter course of therapy].

The ifn vendors won’t be able to do that because there will continue to patients who undergo 48 weeks of therapy; these will include genotype-1/4 patients who fail to achieve RVR and (probably) all genotype-2/3 patients.

[rkrw]

A premium price to telapravir is not going to happen.

I do think a great number of oral products in early development will be dropped because they're too far behind and will be too expensive and risky to justify the investment. If that's what you mean by group think. How that relates to lambda's future role i'm not sure.

I'll rephrase it for you again, to my mind it's a lot of money for bristol to pay, upfront, milestones, development costs, royalties for a 70% chance (your estimate) it will be obsoleted. I'd like to know what Roche or SGP bid for the program if at all. I think there would be better places for bristol to invest over $1B.

[iwfal]

My guess is that IFN-L gets to market within 18 months of the first triple oral therapy becoming the norm. And if IFN is still necessary they take the market very very quickly

.

My predict from 1.5 years ago looks to have been substantially too conservative. At this point it looks like IFN-L gets to market well BEFORE the widespread use of any triple DAA therapy. Excluding the BMY 2DAAs, perhaps it even gets to market before any 2DAAs are approved for use with SOC.

(the wildcard of course is what happens if some other DAA shoots for approval as a standalone+SOC and then can get tested in after-approval trials (with, say, Telaprevir) which might go quicker because of the lack of corporate walls)