Replies to post #9084 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[augieboo]

"1) Most everyone's seen the chart parallels of NASDAQ's bubble, overlaid on the Depression bubble of the DJIA. It suggests worse to come in the next year. If it's that simple, it seems the whole world should short most anything."

Ah, but you forget that the American Sheeple have been brainwashed for decades now to believe certain untruths about the stock market, such as:

1. No one makes any money by trading stocks;

2. Shorting stocks is evil and anti-American;

3. Technical analysis is all just voodoo-hokum that doesn't work.

4. The price will always go up again if you just hold the stock and keep the faith, baby!



Woof-woof!

(:

augie

[Zeev Hed]

I have discussed my point of view on gold man times on SI, you may want to do a search there. (I just did a fast search on the MDD thread where I used to comment on gold, #reply-15369724, an early 2001 post, things are still the same...except that you need to adjust the price to the dollar.)

As for the parallel between this market and the 1929 market, I don't see it. The 1929 market correctly forecasted a lengthy depression in the economy. I don't think we are facing anything similar to that at this time. Some parts of the world may, however. Argentina may enter such a lengthy period of sub par economic activity, Brazil may or may not follow. I am much more worried about the pacific rim countries and China which have relied for their growth on the US consumer, and if we are going to solve our economic problems we will have to stop being the World's "consumer of last resort" as we have done during the last 10 years or so. I have no reason to change the basic model presented in an old April 2000 post (#reply-13483082 ), except that the over optimistic lower boundary (at the time, it looked quite "dooms dayish") cited there for the Naz may need to be lowered further, possibly as low as half the 1900 cited there more than two years ago (an eventual spike to 950 on the Naz?).

Zeev