Replies to post #8905 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

George, you may be a little premature on gold here, Barrick and Placer are already making 52 weeks low, I wonder what it will take for the rest of the group. I think that the XAU is "forecasting" sub $300, today it got too close to $300, and as I suggested some time ago, if after the move to $330/40 (we never even got close to $340), we breach $297, we will see the $260/70 area again. That is quite strange actually, since the dollar has not regained much strength, by the dollar measure, i would still guess gold should have been in the middle of the $300/$330 range. The weakness might be associated with the "nassacre end" stage (we are still meandering here in the last few days of an unplanned extended phase IV <g), as I have suggested about six weeks ago, but that is more severe than I expected, thus my suggesting that your move back in might be a little premature. I don't play the "yellow" myself, so my intuition on this one could very well be faulty (it is faulty often enough on sectors I play extensively <g).

Zeev

[montanamark]

george, i am interested to hear of your foray back into gold.
i am waiting to see what happens with the dollar. i think it could run back to 108 and if it breaks that resistance, the 114
area is possible:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$usd,uu[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200]....

several other caveats include the short term problem of
decreasing production and reserves at many mines. long term this is a positve as it should help the price of gold and
encourage those with cash to buy out juniors. another problem i have been reading about is the increasing costs of production. summer is also historically a weak seasonal period.
i welcome your input and hope zeev and others will direct more focus and analysis in this area. i am starting to trade
some of the stocks again after cashing out weeks ago, but only for a swing or trade until i feel more comfortable that some type of a bottom is forming.