Replies to post #1 on The TradingEdge

[jxyzobrien]

Welcome to distribution phase of OEX. Here is a 5 min
spx. Breadth about even as expected. Low energy wave.
On the 5 min chart notice we could not get to RSI 70 and
we are in slight down trend channel. So use your 5 min
charts to trade up and down all day with an eye on the
dollar




http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p22375198706&a=181375501

[jxyzobrien]

INTEREST RATES AND PRICE EXPANSION

Here is a chart of interest rates (TNX 10 year rates).
I used Wyckoff methodology and elliot wave methodology.
Notice how similar wyckoff and elliot are. The old saying is stocks follow bonds which follow interest rates.

Wykcoff analysis
On the weekly chart when an equity does 2 consecutive A to B
legs the 3rd leg either retraces the entire structure
or goes sideway marking time building cause to go higher (like a 4th wave). So i believe we are now doing a new
a A to B leg. So 31 + 10 = 41 would be the minimum
expansion (size of first leg up). Max expansion 16 to 47.
The longer the cause the bigger the effect. So this
pattern could continue going sideways for a while yet.

Elliot analysis
Sure do look like 3 waves complete and we are in the 4th.
Notice how symetrically the chart is. Notice how well RSI
and fast stoc. marked tops and bottoms. The 4th wave sure
looks like it completed an ABC and maybe finished.



http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p19966278284&a=124124842

[jxyzobrien]

Testing to see if candleglance groups appears changed
to firefox. Switched from IE to firefox to see trucks charts
better.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1818383,52&cmd=show&disp=F

[blacktruck]

It surely does look like a b triangle with a breakdown area targeting ? for the c. I will be working on this...The ML downgrade of semi sector causing some pain in premarket. Will it stretch through entire day? I am anxious to see where ES opens...

To look at all SPX charts click the message I replied to..

[jxyzobrien]

LEAP
First after a stock has a selling climax and huge run down.
Once it breaks above the daily 20da ma with volume
Wyckoff called this a sign of strength (SOS). LEAP was upgraded
by C in early november. For the first time in months it has also
broken out of a channel. Since this may be wave 1 see how it pulls
back. If it gaps up buy baby buy. Fridays volume was the highest
in the stocks history 14 million. Previous high 9 million.
There are also buy out rumors. Lets see if it was a one day
wonder. Institutions are buying this girl dont matter why.
They flush em then they run em up.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEAP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p85802020992&a=184083308

[jxyzobrien]

GAP RULES APPLY

After a big gap up the market generally continues in that
direction for the first 5-10 minutes. Then it generally tries
to fill 50% of the gap. So mark yesterdays close and the first
15 min spx candle to measure the move. Then check breadth and advance decline numbers. If the pullback is less than 50% it is a strong market and will continue the strong up day. If it breaks the 50% level it will then attempt to fill the gap. A sideways move
means hold longs till at least the afternoon.

FAS
I got in way too early (EOD thursday). The market is correcting
my poor entry point.

My thinking is gap and crap. However catching the bears so off
guard will give this some juice. If breadth and advance decline
stay strong stay long. I will post a chart after 10am

[jxyzobrien]

OIL just crushed
oil down 2.60
so futures can't ignore that much of pullback.

futures and oil bouncing