I am not any good at predicting short-term prices, but here is a list of my thoughts I just sent to a friend.
A few thoughts of what the week ahead will look like:
1. If you have access to level 2, watch it in the half hour before the market opens. I suspect the bid/ask will be in the high 0.60s.
2. AEMD is listed as the #1 Community Sentiment stock half way down on the left hand side of on the main Yahoo Finance page as of this morning. With such things, I suspect there will be even more attention Monday.
3. We had some resistence at 0.59-0.60 several times during the week and we burned through it with heavy buying in the last 15 minutes on Friiday. In turn, unless we go back down to the 0.50s right near the open, I suspect that 0.59-0.60 is going to be a support level for Monday and Tuesday.
4. Given how it closed very near the High of the Day on Thursday andbasically at the HOD on Friday, I agree with many other posters I have seen that think we are not done going up. The multi-year charts show acouple peaks in the 0.80 range and I suspect we go test that pretty quickly Monday or Tuesday (likely Monday).
5. I will be honest, I have never been involved in a stock that has gone so parabolic like this so I have no experience in evaluating what the hell is going to happen. As I said, with the closes at the high the serious volume, coverage from several stock coverage web newsletters, I am pretty comfortable that we are not done.
6. Some on the Yahoo AEMD message board are calling for the $1.25-$2.50 range. With two conferences next week and rumors about NEW Hep C data (which I do not believe), I am starting to think going over a buck is very possible.
7. What could be very significant at the nephrology conference is the following 1-2-3-4 punch given to a whole bunch of doctors:
1. AEMD did reduce viral load in limited patients by an average of 46% per treatment
2. A third party company proved filtration at the onset of standard drug therapy can significantly improve cure rates.
3. AEMD models based on their humand data indicate that 1-2 days of constant treatment should reduce viral blood load to non-detectable levels
4. Exhaustive literature analysis by AEMD has shown that those who can reach very low levels within the first few days of standard Hep C treatment have a much higher and even 100% cure rate.
I am very confident that these 4 points will be made this friday at the nephrology conference and I think it will grab some people.
8. If you buy Monday morning, I personally think anywhere in the mid-0.60s is a good buy given the week ahead. Obviously, a pull back at anytime is possible, so I would not put all my free cash in it so, if there is a pull back, you can average down.
9. In watching the intraday trading this week, which I will note I have just started to really do, I can tell you that areas that took awhile to get through and/or acted as support on intraday pullbacks were: 0.40-0.43, 0.51-.0.53 and 0.59-0.60. As I said, I suspect you wont see these numbers Monday or Tuesday, but in the future I will be considering these areas as potential entry points in the days and weeks ahead for averaging down. Of course, we could leave the pennies Monday/Tuesday and never return, just no way to really know at this point.
10. There was one post on Yahoo that made sense to me regarding the week ahead (though I do not know the poster). He suggested that we will continue to move up Monday and Tuesday, that one should look for a pullback/consolidation on Wednesday, with momentum picking up again Thurdsday and Friday given the nephorology conference. Though I do not really do short-term trading, I could easily see it unfolding this way.
11. One small note is that our CEO has been very good in the past getting some media coverage. I have always been surprised by the number of news pieces from past years available on the internet and IHUB board. With the A) recent H1N1 announcment, B) the exosome subsidiary and Jim's stated belief that in the next year or two many people will learn of the exosome world, C) Dr. Kher coming to San Diego and D) our presence at the nephrology conference, I suspect we very well might see some new media coverage over the week ahead.
Just a hunch on my part, but I have been decent at piecing clues together recently;-)
Anyway, enough for now.
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