<< Btw, we didn't have 'lean' hog futures when I was at the merc.....
<< Just them plain old everyday hogs, but of course they still had to fall within the delivery specifications.
<< If you have a minute, I'll tell you how important hogs are to our economy compared to people... <g>
Lean hogs are just a 1997 name change for live hogs. And they only started trading pork bellies in 1961.
Hm, it might be law that you have to count them all, and I don't know how it use to be done, but these days those pig and hog reports are just statistical sampling like all government reports are. They're up to 17 states now and all the other states have less than 4 million pigs or less than 10% of the total. What would we do without Iowa where they have 5 pigs for every person? NC with the next most pigs only has a little more than 1 pig per person.
So pigs have two litters a year? Which would mean about 100 million are grown per year or about a pig for every three people. 2.5 #'s a day?? So it takes less then 100 days to grow a hog (a hog being of course a pig over 100#'s)?
How come nobody trades chickens or turkeys? Didn't they try to trade eggs at one time, but nobody was interested. Speaking of eggs, where last fall there was a shortage and the price ran up, this fall they are about giving them away at the store. Looking at CALM it was last Nov. that it went ballistic. What's it doing still trading over $10. In the 6 yrs. before that it had never been over $5.
Reliability of September 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates
Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 11,700 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide
data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size,
had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small
operations. Data were collected from about 9,650 operations, 83 percent of the total sample, during
the first-half of September by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of
when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September 1.
Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics
Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and
State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past
years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the
estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This
indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for
reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter
relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates
are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The
reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed
after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No
revisions will be made after that date.
Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are
subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as
omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of
these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the
data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square
Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a
statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and
final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters
is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or
below the current estimate of 61.4 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10
that the difference will not exceed 1.9 percent.
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