There's a lot of noise recently from people who want to manipulate the market. I think most of the talk about $60 oil is coming from them, and they will sell their positions as soon as they see that won't happen. We could thus be in for a nasty drop in the price, likely down into the low $40's pretty quickly.
BP's prediction, though, is another story. I'm inclined to agree, but I'm not sure I'm happy about the source, given their inability to estimate even their own reserves...