Replies to post #6350 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Actually, Patrick, during every single one of the last four major bottoms (May 2000, Jan, April and September of 2001, the turnips were early by between a week and two weeks, I thought I managed to correct the model for that aberration, but apparently, there are additional factors, which I have not managed to include in the model preventing the turnips to be more exact. As consolation, in all the four prior cases, apart of some nasty agida during the final bottoming period, no serious damage was inflicted on the folio. This time could be different, but I don't see why, any spark, real or artificial, could ignite this market, IMTO. Thus the erring ways of the turnips cannot be assigned to their new abode, it is just the way they are, at bottoms, they have been and apparently still are premature.

Zeev

[michalel97123]

Bears are waiting for the crash, just as bulls in y2k(remember that term) were waiting for the boom after nasdaq hit 4000. That last 1000 points came very fast if you remember. I think we are at the equivalent of negative naz 5000 right here BUT perhaps we are still early?
The guy who wrote "The coming internet depression" back in 1999 and was laughed at was on crossfire last night. He has another interesting thesis right now. It is that we are on the verge of a major tech upswing end of year beginning of next. He said that the continuation of high wages into this year(this is a unique take) has been a negative in earnings that is being corrected by layoffs and i guess by worker lack of clout in this job market. Less workers and those who remain barely getting raises + Big IT boom coming to replace old stuff, i guess starting with US govt upgrades in Fall will lead to a new bull market.
Also dollar rising today. Most folks take dollar decline as bad news but one can make the case that the dollar when overvalued, was hurting exports and encouraging imports. Free fall aint good but Dollar at its mid range price against euro isnt a bad thing i would maintain. mike