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Replies to #16952 on One Step Ahead
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hoby111

10/11/04 2:49 PM

#16965 RE: Freedom #16952

Re: Opportunity Cost and LV Trip

I think even Zen is underestimating how foolish it is to book tix to Vegas any sooner than the last minute, even if CMKX goes on a run. Look at it this way:

As an individual, if you get the cheapest flight and stay at the cheapest hotel, a weekend in Vegas will cost most people at least $500. That $500 could buy 2.5M shares of CMKX right this minute. Now, if you bought CMKX today and it ran to even just .0010 by the 20th (the RSVP deadline for the party), that $500 purchase at .0002 would be valued at $2500. Therefore, even if you lost out on a cheaper trip for $500 because you waited to book it and it ended up costing you $1000 instead for the exact same package, you'd still have $1500 more then than you would if you bought today.

On the contrary, if the stock doesn't go up at all between now and the 20th, most people, I suspect, wouldn't feel like going to the party anyway, so the $500 you invested in CMKX would still be a better use of your money assuming CMKX does in fact become profitable for us one day in the future.

In short, booking a trip to Vegas any sooner than the absolute last minute makes no sense at all, assuming the primary motivation for your trip is the CMKX/UCAD party. Instead, you're better off buying more CMKX now with the assumption that there will be a CMKX PPS increase before the party. Otherwise, there will be no reason to attend the party in the first place.