With .90 of premium to pay your breakeven is 38.10.
the 37.50 puts have a 24.59% prob of expiring and 47.02 prob of touching so I estimate that tit would be about 30% Prob of expiring and about 58% probability of touching 38.10. ADP would need to mmove about 1.80 to break even on expiration. Of course if it moves hard there quickly then you could make some nice coin.
One problem I see is that there is 0 open interest in the Nov options and volume is light on the stock, so I would stay away, but thats just me.
However if I was to play it, I would look to sell a call vertical.
Buy the 41 calls and sell the 40 calls and bring in a .45 credit. Your breakeven is 40.45 and you are risking 55.00 to make 45.00/contract on the trade. As long as the stock stays below 40.00, you keep the entire premium. So in this case, the stock doesnt even have to go down (and it can go up .55 and you can still break even.)
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