I agree - you can't create a "fair" market value with only a best case scenario. And yes when/if everything gets approval $10 will seem cheap. But you seem to be assuming there's a 100% probability and a timeline which is very short (you might be right)
But there's also the likelyhood that in a few qtrs they run out of cash again with no forward progress on either of their ANDAs and/or the FDA could actually ask for more data/tests on some. These need to be built into you definition of "cheap" as I dont think you have realistically accounted for options other then the best outcome. Every day that passes their potential "exclusivity" on having a generic is less - so in essence there's a shelf life to it and it's a depreciating asset, which I think many here fail to account for.
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