Replies to post #2987 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[go seek]

odds on Novartis licensing IDX184

65%

> This is a "from the gut" call FWIW

[DewDiligence]

How do you view odds on NVS opt-in [for IDX184]?

go_seek’s 65% number strikes me as reasonable, but I don’t have a strong opinion on this. The reason I don’t is that I’m more concerned with the economics of the IDX184 partnership than I am with the identity of the partner.

Any Big Pharma partner with a presence in infectious diseases would have the intellectual and financial resources to make IDX184 all it can be. For IDIX investors, the main distinction between a partnership with NVS and a partnership with another company is timing: a deal with NVS can be struck at any time, while a deal with another company would have to wait until NVS renders a decision.