>>MNTA’s Valuation in the Single-Generic Lovenox Scenarios
This particular analysis seems quite reasonable to me, but I do have one concern with your overall methodology.
In my view, the single most likely outcome is that MNTA's generic gets approved but we are left hanging as to whether other generics will ever receive approval or not. So then you would essentially have a blend between the single generic case and the multiple generic case, and the stock will trade as some blend of the two outcomes. Even though in that scenario MNTA's drug would be the only approved generic (at least for some time), there would always be an overhang of doubt about the possibility of later approvals of competitor drugs that would prevent it reaching the "single generic" range you are projecting.
FWIW, my take on the possibility of an "authorized generic" is that Sanofi launching an authorized generic would be quite unlikely in the "single generic" case but likely in the "multiple generic" case. The reason for this is that in the single generic case there would be duopoly pricing, and Sanofi would have little reason to further undercut the price.
MNTA has been a frustrating stock for me over the years. I was long for a while shortly after they went public, then eventually gave up in frustration, but re-entered after the heparin contamination publication and then stayed in the stock too long. Right now I have a modest net-long option position.
Peter
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