Ure: Paul Kasriel, Director of Economic Research at Northern Trust gets a huge gold star for his analysis of what will happen to the US when the dollar is revalued (whether we like it or not) by the foreign countries that have until recently been co-addicts to our debt bubble. Click to http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/ and then open the October 01,2004 presentation (It's a .PDF file). Our favorite part (page 21:
RESULTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD “SHOCK” THE HIGHLY-INDEBTED HOUSEHOLD SECTOR
RESULTING HIGHER INTEREST RATES COULD “SHOCK” AN EXPENSIVE HOUSING MARKET
A “SHOCKED” HOUSING MARKET COULD SEVERELY DAMAGE THE BANKING SYSTEM
He also notes that the ""P/E" for housing is the highest in history. So, when the music stops, household wealth will tank, which killed consumer spending which will ripple to high unemployment, which will lead to mortgage defaults, which would put more pressure downward on real estate, which could cost lenders dearly and the cycle will grow. But as he points out in slide 30 "BUT DON’T WORRY ABOUT THIS RISK CASE BECAUSE ALAN GREENSPAN HAS ASSURED US THAT THERE IS NO HOUSING MARKET BUBBLE."
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