the 13 ema is a guideline and is used in context of the trend i believe we are in. it is my well and often stated opinion that the ndx topped at 1440 last week and we are in a downtrend. in such a trend the 13 ema will act as resistance as a general rule. there are always exceptions or times that it closes above it. take a look at the end of july/early august. it traded above it for 4 consecutive days. then once the bounce was over the trend re asseerted itself. ( i am in no way expecting that kind of free fall here, but its a recent example).
i believe the ndx has a date with 1350-60 area in less than two weeks. should the ndx get past the 1415-20 barrier, i would look to cut losses as my read would have been wrong. the thing that scares me a bit is that i have been so right for so long that i am conciously aware that im due for a major fark up. tomorrow could be the day as i sold remaining longs and went to a full 200% short position in RUT and MID. NDX shorts were moved to MID shorts as i thoght it was going to close red. unfortunately a program kicked in at the last few min and pushed the index back into the green.
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