Replies to post #303761 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sherlock356]

If we can get some kind of tort-reform passed it would sure help...

[Tim Lamb]

Zeev:

For after market regarding MRK.

It is not only the issue of a 10% loss in revenue and related profits (which is a boon to AMGN) but now the trial lawyers will find impacted patients (similar to that diet drug Phen Fen (sp??)) and this can cost billions (YES billions).

So I would revisit the fundamentals of MRK remaining in the core under $35.

[MyHunch]

Zeev, you mentioned earlier that your bid for MRK just under $32 is for a DCB. Where do you see the cat bouncing back to in the next several weeks, especially in a scenario where you expect the market as a whole to be on a downtrend? TIA

[Paul Fakler]

After the class action lawsuits hit next week you'll probably be able to get it too (MRK @ 32).

With more than 2 million Vioxx patients worldwide they should be coming pretty soon. Lets say that for the 5 years Vioxx has been in the market ~ 3 mil used it longer than 18 months. If 1.5% of these have had "cardiovascular events" that's about 45000 incidents. (If you extrapolate the MRK placebo/Vioxx study half of these would have had cardiovascular events in any case. Good news reported is that in the study the deaths due to heart attack were not greater in those using Vioxx over placebo).