Replies to post #3282 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mlsoft]

Zeev....

I was referred to the turnip patch by a friend last weekend, who told me you were both nimble and amazingly correct in your market calls. Having established being "nimble" almost immediately by changing from SI to Ihub, I am seeing evidence of your accuracy also with some very nice calls already. Impressive.

I see us as getting oversold and would normally be looking for a tradable rally here, but am concerned by the almost universal expectations of a rally from this immediate vicinity. I also think that earnings expectations may be too high for the tech sector, and look for a lot of "made the lower end of earnings expectations with a miss on revenues" type of reports accompanied by even more lowered guidance for next quarter and the full year - beginning with INTC on Tuesday. With that as background, I think that there is a chance for a meltdown this week as lows are taken out and downward momentum is accelerated by margin selling, fund redemptions, and plain old fear. If so, I think the DJ could drop 1000 or more points with the NAZ decline in the order of 300-400 points (most offenders would be NAZ type stocks).

What are your thoughts on such a possibility? Thanks in advance, and congratulations on a very nice and informative thread.

mlsoft

[SteveO]

Zeev,

Don't you think that AG's testimony will be a catalyst? First, on Monday, as the expectation of cheerleading gives strength and then, on Tueday, his testimony itself. Obviously, he has to make up for GW's shortcomings (a tough task, IMHO <<<Oops, Politics GGG>>>). There is a lot good to talk about. GE's happy talk was ignored. I think that we were waiting for an earnings rally last Q but earnings failed to fill the bill. This Q, no one has taken notice of the best ratio of improved guidance to warnings in years. I think they will take notice as earnings come out. Then in August/September, we will all realize that this was the rear-view mirror and unsustainable as we do the double-dip. Anyway, I am not sure that patience will be rewarded here in the short-term.

Right now, it looks like a replay of last Q with the earnings rally that never came, but I am not so sure that that is not just a mirage. I think we are at 1610, before the bear suit comes out again around August.